{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091308",
  "record_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-16-2026-09-13",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 16%",
  "headline": "Strait of Hormuz normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 16%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-16",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.16,
    "volume_24h_usd": 105650.38211800001,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts 16% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "The breakdown of the Oman-brokered Gulf-Iran talks is consistent with the market's heavy skepticism on normalization within the year.",
    "An Iranian cargo vessel was struck near Qeshm Island on the same day talks collapsed, adding fresh operational risk the market was already pricing.",
    "At 16%, the contract signals the market sees normalization as unlikely absent a major diplomatic breakthrough not yet in sight."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Mohammed Ghobari",
          "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/diplomacy-stumbles-with-postponement-meeting-strait-hormuz-proposal-2026-09-13/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-14T14:41:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Diplomatic talks on a Hormuz transit framework collapsed after Saudi Arabia called off a high-level Oman-brokered meeting with Iran amid escalating Houthi and militia threats.",
      "publisher": "Mohammed Ghobari",
      "published_at": "2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/diplomacy-stumbles-with-postponement-meeting-strait-hormuz-proposal-2026-09-13/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle on whether Hormuz transit volumes return to pre-disruption normal levels before January 1, 2027."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Mohammed Ghobari: Diplomacy stumbles with postponement of meeting on Strait of Hormuz pr",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/diplomacy-stumbles-with-postponement-meeting-strait-hormuz-proposal-2026-09-13/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-14T14:41:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-16-2026-09-13/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-16-2026-09-13.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}