{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091907",
  "record_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-18-2026-09-19",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Strait of Hormuz back to normal by December stays unlikely",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 18%",
  "headline": "Strait of Hormuz normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 18%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-19",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.18,
    "volume_24h_usd": 7577.96187,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts 18% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.",
    "Houthi territorial gains and continued disruption of Saudi oil exports are consistent with the market's strong skepticism about a near-term normalization.",
    "Separately, a US blockade of Iranian ports described in adjacent reporting reinforces the structural disruption narrative underpinning this pricing.",
    "Resolution via uma_oracle; the contract's definition of 'normal' traffic levels is the key edge case, as partial recoveries may not meet the threshold."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "The Christian Science Monitor",
          "source_url": "https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2026/0919/houthis-yemen-saudi-iran-trump-oil",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T12:14:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Houthi forces in Yemen have captured strategic territory and are disrupting Saudi oil exports, threatening the global energy trade and broader Middle East stability.",
      "publisher": "The Christian Science Monitor",
      "published_at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2026/0919/houthis-yemen-saudi-iran-trump-oil"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket resolves via uma_oracle; at 18% the contract prices persistent regional disruption as the base case through year-end."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "The Christian Science Monitor: Iran-backed Houthis are on the march in Yemen, risking Middle East sta",
      "url": "https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2026/0919/houthis-yemen-saudi-iran-trump-oil",
      "published_at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T12:14:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-18-2026-09-19/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-18-2026-09-19.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}