{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092503",
  "record_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-24-2026-09-25",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-25T03:49:19.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays below 25%",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 24%",
  "headline": "Strait of Hormuz normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 24%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-25",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.24,
    "volume_24h_usd": 182769.6073760001,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract prices a 24% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31, 2026.",
    "Iran's explicit refusal to soften its Hormuz position during New York talks is consistent with the market's sub-25% pricing; no agreement appears imminent.",
    "Russia and Iran's joint call for a diplomatic-only solution, reported separately, adds a veto dynamic that extends the timeline risk.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; resolution requires observable normalization of commercial shipping traffic through the strait, not merely a political declaration."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Hamza Hendawi",
          "source_url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/09/25/iran-hardens-hormuz-stance-as-new-york-diplomacy-struggles-for-breakthrough/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-25T13:12:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran hardened its Hormuz stance at the UN General Assembly as New York diplomacy failed to produce a breakthrough, with Iran insisting the US must make the first move to end the war.",
      "publisher": "Hamza Hendawi",
      "published_at": "2026-09-25T03:49:19.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/09/25/iran-hardens-hormuz-stance-as-new-york-diplomacy-struggles-for-breakthrough/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket via UMA oracle; at 24%, the market reflects deep skepticism that New York-level diplomacy can bridge the gap before year-end."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Hamza Hendawi: Iran hardens Hormuz stance as New York diplomacy struggles for breakth",
      "url": "https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/09/25/iran-hardens-hormuz-stance-as-new-york-diplomacy-struggles-for-breakthrough/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-25T03:49:19.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-25T13:12:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-24-2026-09-25/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-24-2026-09-25.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}