{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080106",
  "record_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-47-2026-08-01",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end sits near 50 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 47%",
  "headline": "Strait of Hormuz normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 47%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.47,
    "volume_24h_usd": 52981.31677000001,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 47% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31.",
    "Truce collapse and White House warnings of fresh Iran strikes push the resolution scenario further out, keeping the contract near but just below 50%.",
    "At 47%, the Polymarket contract signals genuine two-way uncertainty, with five months remaining and an active military standoff as the key variable.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-ZP3JDLXZQ0 implies peak single-day transit calls in the 10-15 range, consistent with significantly reduced but not fully halted traffic."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "indiatoday.in",
          "source_url": "https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/trump-iran-strikes-white-house-warns-tehran-after-hormuz-tanker-attacks-truce-collapse-ptag-2961021-2026-08-01",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-01T09:54:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US-Iran truce collapsed and the White House is weighing fresh strikes on Iran as Hormuz tanker attacks resume, raising new doubts about passage normalization.",
      "publisher": "indiatoday.in",
      "published_at": "2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/trump-iran-strikes-white-house-warns-tehran-after-hormuz-tanker-attacks-truce-collapse-ptag-2961021-2026-08-01"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; 'normal' traffic will require a clear, sustained return to pre-conflict transit levels, which escalating US-Iran military action makes uncertain."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "indiatoday.in: Trump Iran strikes: White House warns Tehran after Hormuz tanker attac",
      "url": "https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/trump-iran-strikes-white-house-warns-tehran-after-hormuz-tanker-attacks-truce-collapse-ptag-2961021-2026-08-01",
      "published_at": "2026-08-01T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-01T09:54:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-47-2026-08-01/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-47-2026-08-01.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}