{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080205",
  "record_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-58-2026-08-02",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays near 50-50",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 58%",
  "headline": "Strait of Hormuz normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 58%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-02",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.58,
    "volume_24h_usd": 235524.2087829999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract prices 58% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.",
    "Trump's ceasefire signal and explicit mention of Hormuz reopening talks are consistent with the market moving above 50%, though Iran's warning of a decisive response keeps full pricing at bay.",
    "Trading volume on related Fed funds contracts surged sharply this session, indicating broader macro repricing linked to the oil supply picture.",
    "A separate contract on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31 sits at just 28% on Polymarket, highlighting the gap between a tactical pause and a durable deal."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cbsnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-iran-attack-framework-deal-war/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-02T09:52:49+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "President Trump announced the US has agreed to cancel its Iran attack after deal parameters were reached, with Middle Eastern nations requesting time to finalize a Hormuz reopening agreement.",
      "publisher": "cbsnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-iran-attack-framework-deal-war/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 58% reflects cautious optimism: the ceasefire is real but the path to a signed, implemented Hormuz agreement by year-end remains uncertain."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cbsnews.com: Trump signals deal to end Iran war may be imminent, agrees to \"cancel",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-iran-attack-framework-deal-war/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-02T09:52:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-58-2026-08-02/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-58-2026-08-02.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}