{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061302",
  "record_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-78-2026-06-13",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-13T03:47:45.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Hormuz full-year reopening consensus holds near 78 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket ladder",
  "headline": "Strait of Hormuz normal by Dec 31: Polymarket 78%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by Dec 31 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",
    "question_raw": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.78,
    "volume_24h_usd": 289674.7514719999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolution_source": "portwatch.imf.org",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 at 78%, reflecting moderate confidence in a year-end resolution.",
    "Near-term Hormuz contracts tell a different story: normal by June 15 at 1%, normal by June 30 at 18%, confirming the market sees a deal as unlikely to reopen the strait immediately.",
    "The spread between June 30 (18%) and December 31 (78%) implies the market prices in a multi-month gap between any deal signing and full traffic restoration.",
    "Resolves via IMF PortWatch data at portwatch.imf.org; traffic must return to pre-conflict baseline levels."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Balaram Menon",
          "source_url": "https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/end-of-war-in-sight-as-us-and-iran-close-in-on-landmark-accord-1.500572912",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-13T10:25:37+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US and Iranian officials describe a landmark accord in its final stages, with Pakistan mediating and sanctions relief on the table.",
      "publisher": "Balaram Menon",
      "published_at": "2026-06-13T03:47:45.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/end-of-war-in-sight-as-us-and-iran-close-in-on-landmark-accord-1.500572912"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's term structure across three Hormuz contracts shows sharp timeline doubt: the market credits a deal eventually but not imminently."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Balaram Menon: Landmark US, Iran Accord in Final Stage: Pakistan Mediation, Drone Inte",
      "url": "https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/end-of-war-in-sight-as-us-and-iran-close-in-on-landmark-accord-1.500572912",
      "published_at": "2026-06-13T03:47:45.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-13T10:25:37+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-78-2026-06-13/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-78-2026-06-13.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}