{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260629DV00",
  "record_slug": "tesla-and-spacex-m-a-k14-p27",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-29T01:47:46+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Tesla-SpaceX merger odds split sharply across venues",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 27% vs Kalshi 14%",
  "headline": "Tesla/SpaceX binding merger before Oct 2026: Kalshi 14% vs Polymarket 27%",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-J2MX96G9X1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcompanyactionmerger-27",
  "event_question": "Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Oct 1, 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x9e7056c4004056441b57f960460c5e4f6d3e6ab9e1633b15538eb909d0f34466",
    "question_raw": "Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?",
    "current_price": 0.27,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 43776.45547600002,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [
    {
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26OCT01",
      "question_raw": "Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Oct 1, 2026?",
      "current_price": 0.14
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the merger at 27%, Kalshi at 14%, a 13pp spread on the same Sep 2026 claim.",
    "Polymarket is the higher-conviction venue with substantially deeper liquidity; Kalshi book is thin.",
    "Thin Kalshi volume may reflect retail skepticism or tighter resolution-criteria reading on 'binding agreement'.",
    "Contract resolves on a publicly announced, definitive, binding merger or acquisition agreement before Oct 1, 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-948B650775); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 757.249314,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 0
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreemen",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/tesla-and-spacex-mna-m-2026-09",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T01:47:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/tesla-and-spacex-m-a-k14-p27/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/tesla-and-spacex-m-a-k14-p27.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}