{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060306",
  "record_slug": "trump-agrees-to-iranian-demands-by-june-30-polymarket-68-2026-06-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-03T00:50:06.000Z",
  "headline": "Trump agrees to Iranian demands by June 30: Polymarket 68%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-1G2HVDCQG7",
  "target_event_slug": "what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will Trump agree to Iranian demands by June 30?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xed25d03a2589af03a7a603e7c07c36d53baf38c148e50cc1f5a6a6f285d68862",
    "question_raw": "Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?",
    "current_price": 0.68,
    "volume_24h_usd": 5950.016447000012,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 68% on Trump agreeing to Iranian demands by June 30, despite active military exchanges and stalled talks.",
    "Ongoing ballistic missile and drone attacks from Iran sit in tension with the 68% probability; the market is not treating the military escalation as a deal-breaker yet.",
    "Companion Polymarket contract CM-EVT-XYC4HDKBW3 prices 97% on the Iranian regime surviving US strikes, consistent with a negotiated rather than military resolution.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; resolution likely requires a publicly announced and verified agreement on Iranian nuclear or military demands before June 30."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Anniek Bao",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/us-iran-war-escalates-peace-talks-stalemate-.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:50:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US and Iran intensified attacks as the ceasefire frays and peace talks stall, with multiple Iranian ballistic missile and drone strikes repelled by US forces.",
      "publisher": "Anniek Bao",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T00:50:06.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/us-iran-war-escalates-peace-talks-stalemate-.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket holds 68% on a near-term Iran deal even as ceasefire violations intensify, creating notable tension between the military news flow and the contract's optimistic pricing."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Anniek Bao: U.S., Iran intensify attacks as ceasefire frays, peace talks stall",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/us-iran-war-escalates-peace-talks-stalemate-.html",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T00:50:06.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:50:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-agrees-to-iranian-demands-by-june-30-polymarket-68-2026-06-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-agrees-to-iranian-demands-by-june-30-polymarket-68-2026-06-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}