{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100304",
  "record_slug": "trump-approval-above-43-kalshi-ladder-under-7-2026-10-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Trump approval odds slip below 43 percent threshold",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Trump approval above 43%: Kalshi ladder under 7%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-03",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-VWW9FTFB33",
  "target_event_slug": "kxtrumpapprovalyear-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Donald Trump approval rating threshold (43%)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-43",
    "question_raw": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 43% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
    "current_price": 0.07,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "<polling organization>",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices only 7% probability that Trump's approval rating clears 43%, with all higher strikes at 6% or below.",
    "A 5-point net approval improvement after the Israel-Iran ceasefire has not moved the market materially above the low-single-digit range for the 43% threshold.",
    "The companion Kalshi contract on Trump approval by December 31, 2026 sits at 12% for a 'below threshold' outcome, suggesting the market sees limited upside for approval through year-end.",
    "Resolution uses a named polling organization; the specific pollster and methodology will determine whether the ceasefire bounce is captured in the settlement read."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "links.morningconsult.com",
          "source_url": "https://links.morningconsult.com/s/vb/W-d8JY9vfRSwvrXaYYc_ModFKt3LZBaWuwnqbjqj5dMb62cAl3riVlUvKGu8WGoQevqfx82w4pW-9il39xCXa3YSuEC-LxGxQLHywtd2lY5RH0NaPblurxaLBwIPymHIUzEV8kmyjTY_N4SZXWjMaVGd_0i8dvrLPk27MA/FOTGo__hMmjdo9q2kEQw0UPyI58QyTri/25",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-03T07:47:35+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump's net approval improved 5 points over the past week following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, but the Morning Consult survey suggests overall approval remains subdued.",
      "publisher": "links.morningconsult.com",
      "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://links.morningconsult.com/s/vb/W-d8JY9vfRSwvrXaYYc_ModFKt3LZBaWuwnqbjqj5dMb62cAl3riVlUvKGu8WGoQevqfx82w4pW-9il39xCXa3YSuEC-LxGxQLHywtd2lY5RH0NaPblurxaLBwIPymHIUzEV8kmyjTY_N4SZXWjMaVGd_0i8dvrLPk27MA/FOTGo__hMmjdo9q2kEQw0UPyI58QyTri/25"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder and companion contract both signal the market sees Trump approval staying well below 43%, despite the short-term geopolitical boost."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "links.morningconsult.com: source article",
      "url": "https://links.morningconsult.com/s/vb/W-d8JY9vfRSwvrXaYYc_ModFKt3LZBaWuwnqbjqj5dMb62cAl3riVlUvKGu8WGoQevqfx82w4pW-9il39xCXa3YSuEC-LxGxQLHywtd2lY5RH0NaPblurxaLBwIPymHIUzEV8kmyjTY_N4SZXWjMaVGd_0i8dvrLPk27MA/FOTGo__hMmjdo9q2kEQw0UPyI58QyTri/25",
      "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-03T07:47:35+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-approval-above-43-kalshi-ladder-under-7-2026-10-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-approval-above-43-kalshi-ladder-under-7-2026-10-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}