{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092005",
  "record_slug": "trump-approval-above-43-ladder-prices-below-8-2026-09-20",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-20T09:46:15.297Z",
  "semantic_title": "Trump approval above 43 percent stays near fully priced out",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Trump approval above 43%: ladder prices below 8%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-VWW9FTFB33",
  "target_event_slug": "kxtrumpapprovalyear-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Trump approval rating level",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPAPPROVALYEAR-26DEC31-43",
    "question_raw": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 43% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
    "current_price": 0.084,
    "volume_24h_usd": 42.53,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "<polling organization>",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The approval rating ladder puts only 8% odds on Trump's rating exceeding 43%, with probability collapsing to 6% at 44% and staying flat through 50%, implying the market sees his approval firmly below 43%.",
    "The record-high disapproval figures in the ABC/Ipsos poll are consistent with the ladder's near-zero pricing above 43%; the news and the market are aligned.",
    "A companion ladder on Trump's approval falling below 33% prices that outcome at only 10%, implying the market consensus clusters his approval in the 33-43% range.",
    "Resolution anchors to a named approval-rating polling aggregator; no single poll is sufficient, smoothing out any one-off outlier reading."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ABC News",
          "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/thirds-americans-country-headed-wrong-direction-abc-newswashington/story?id=132583099",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21T07:47:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A new ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found two-thirds of Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction, with Trump's disapproval hitting new records.",
      "publisher": "ABC News",
      "published_at": "2026-09-20T09:46:15.297Z",
      "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/thirds-americans-country-headed-wrong-direction-abc-newswashington/story?id=132583099"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder distributes probability across approval level strikes; current pricing firmly clusters Trump's approval in the low-to-mid 30s range with no path above 43%."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ABC News: Two-thirds of Americans say country is headed in the wrong direction:",
      "url": "https://abcnews.com/Politics/thirds-americans-country-headed-wrong-direction-abc-newswashington/story?id=132583099",
      "published_at": "2026-09-20T09:46:15.297Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21T07:47:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-approval-above-43-ladder-prices-below-8-2026-09-20/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-approval-above-43-ladder-prices-below-8-2026-09-20.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}