{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081707",
  "record_slug": "trump-approval-below-33-kalshi-ladder-14-2026-08-17",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Trump approval odds of dropping below 33 percent build",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Trump approval below 33%: Kalshi ladder 14%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-0DMSQTKVX3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Trump approval rating floor",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-33",
    "question_raw": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 33% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
    "current_price": 0.14,
    "volume_24h_usd": 149.43,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "<polling organization>",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 14% on Trump approval falling below 33%, with 22% below 34% and 32% below 35%, the market sees 33% as a fragile floor.",
    "Reuters/Ipsos reading of exactly 33% puts the current print right at the threshold the ladder assigns only 14% probability of breaching.",
    "The upper tail ladder prices only 10% on approval above 43%, confirming markets see no recovery scenario in this polling cycle.",
    "Polymarket at 5% on Trump ceasing to be president before 2027 shows markets separate approval collapse from removal risk entirely."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jason Lange",
          "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-approval-falls-33-lowest-his-presidency-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2026-08-17/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-20T08:32:51+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A Reuters/Ipsos poll found Trump's approval at 33%, his lowest of the presidency, with 64% disapproval.",
      "publisher": "Jason Lange",
      "published_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-approval-falls-33-lowest-his-presidency-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2026-08-17/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via approval polling aggregates; the 33% current reading sits at the edge of the distribution's most sensitive zone."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jason Lange: EXCLUSIVE: Trump approval falls to 33%, lowest of his presidency, Reut",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-approval-falls-33-lowest-his-presidency-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2026-08-17/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-20T08:32:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-approval-below-33-kalshi-ladder-14-2026-08-17/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-approval-below-33-kalshi-ladder-14-2026-08-17.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}