{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092007",
  "record_slug": "trump-approval-below-37-ladder-implies-74-odds-2026-09-20",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Trump approval below 37 percent seen likely as Mideast risk builds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Trump approval below 37%: ladder implies 74% odds",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-20",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-0DMSQTKVX3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Trump approval rating floor during measurement period",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-33",
    "question_raw": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 33% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
    "current_price": 0.1,
    "volume_24h_usd": 142.16,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "<polling organization>",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The ladder prices 74% odds Trump's approval stays below 37%, with volume up 71x day over day, signaling intense fresh attention on this contract.",
    "Houthi ballistic missile attack on Riyadh and US warnings of rapid escalation are the likely catalyst driving the volume surge on the approval floor contract.",
    "The distribution shows only 10% odds approval falls below 33%, suggesting the market sees a floor around the 34-36% range, not a collapse.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract on Trump ceasing to be president before 2027 holds at just 5%, indicating the approval pressure is not being read as an existential political risk."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "afp.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.afp.com/en/us-fears-rapid-escalation-mideast-after-houthis-attack-riyadh",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-20T07:47:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The US warned of rapid Mideast escalation after Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Riyadh, adding geopolitical pressure on the administration.",
      "publisher": "afp.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.afp.com/en/us-fears-rapid-escalation-mideast-after-houthis-attack-riyadh"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Volume on the ladder jumped 71x day over day, making this one of the most actively traded approval contracts in the dataset; resolution methodology and pollster sourcing should be confirmed before trading."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "afp.com: US fears rapid escalation in Mideast after Houthis attack Riyadh | AFP",
      "url": "https://www.afp.com/en/us-fears-rapid-escalation-mideast-after-houthis-attack-riyadh",
      "published_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-20T07:47:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-approval-below-37-ladder-implies-74-odds-2026-09-20/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-approval-below-37-ladder-implies-74-odds-2026-09-20.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}