{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100404",
  "record_slug": "trump-approval-dec-31-below-threshold-kalshi-12-2026-10-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Trump approval below threshold by year-end stays long odds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Trump approval Dec 31 below threshold: Kalshi 12%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-0DMSQTKVX3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Donald Trump approval rating, December 31, 2026 (below threshold)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-33",
    "question_raw": "Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 33% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?",
    "current_price": 0.12,
    "volume_24h_usd": 46.03,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "<polling organization>",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi contract prices only 12% on Trump approval falling below the defined threshold by December 31, 2026.",
    "Latino voter swing news is consistent with sinking approval polls, yet the market gives only modest odds to the below-threshold outcome.",
    "The 12% price implies the market's baseline is that approval stays above threshold even amid the deteriorating political environment.",
    "Companion Kalshi ladder CM-EVT-VWW9FTFB33 shows under 5% on any strike above 43%, together suggesting approval seen stuck in a narrow low band."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Ben Kamisar, Bridget Bowman",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/poll-latino-voters-swing-away-trump-republicans-midterm-shift-rcna599894",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T13:39:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "An NBC News poll shows Democrats with a significant lead among Latino voters in 2026, with economic concerns driving swing away from Republicans.",
      "publisher": "Ben Kamisar, Bridget Bowman",
      "published_at": "2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/poll-latino-voters-swing-away-trump-republicans-midterm-shift-rcna599894"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Resolves via polling organization; the 12% price on a below-threshold outcome reflects disagreement on exactly where the floor sits."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Ben Kamisar, Bridget Bowman: Poll: Latino voters swing away from Trump and Republicans",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/poll-latino-voters-swing-away-trump-republicans-midterm-shift-rcna599894",
      "published_at": "2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T13:39:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-approval-dec-31-below-threshold-kalshi-12-2026-10-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-approval-dec-31-below-threshold-kalshi-12-2026-10-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}