{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070505",
  "record_slug": "trump-attends-nato-summit-polymarket-99-2026-07-05",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-05T02:47:27.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Trump NATO summit attendance nears full pricing",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 99%",
  "headline": "Trump attends NATO Summit: Polymarket 99%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FD56H0NQ25",
  "target_event_slug": "will-trump-attend-nato-summit-279",
  "event_question": "Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x71ee9c148f0e2b386ba959aca5954c5e6c428695bf1a5fca0af9194f40487758",
    "question_raw": "Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?",
    "current_price": 0.989,
    "volume_24h_usd": 7163.753250999999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-08T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 99% probability that Trump attends the NATO Summit, resolved via UMA oracle.",
    "Trading volume on this Polymarket contract surged 2,721% day over day, with the Trump-Putin call and summit framing driving fresh positioning to near-certainty.",
    "At 99%, the market treats Trump's NATO attendance as a near-done fact; the diplomatic activity around the summit is consistent with, not in tension with, that pricing.",
    "Despite near-certain attendance, the companion Polymarket contract on a Ukraine peace deal (CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424) sits at only 18%, showing the market separates showing up from delivering a deal."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "aa.com.tr",
          "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/russia-says-trump-reaffirmed-readiness-to-help-end-ukraine-war-in-phone-call-with-putin/3986393",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-05T10:07:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Russia says Trump reaffirmed readiness to help end the Ukraine war in a call with Putin, with the NATO summit in Ankara as the backdrop for settlement discussions.",
      "publisher": "aa.com.tr",
      "published_at": "2026-07-05T02:47:27.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/russia-says-trump-reaffirmed-readiness-to-help-end-ukraine-war-in-phone-call-with-putin/3986393"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket binary contract resolving via UMA oracle; exceptional volume spike confirms the Trump-Putin call elevated this contract to maximum attention."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "aa.com.tr: Russia says Trump 'reaffirmed readiness' to help end Ukraine war in ph",
      "url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/russia-says-trump-reaffirmed-readiness-to-help-end-ukraine-war-in-phone-call-with-putin/3986393",
      "published_at": "2026-07-05T02:47:27.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-05T10:07:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-attends-nato-summit-polymarket-99-2026-07-05/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-attends-nato-summit-polymarket-99-2026-07-05.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}