{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072308",
  "record_slug": "trump-calls-for-thune-ouster-kalshi-39-2026-07-23",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Trump publicly calling out Thune stays below 40%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 39%",
  "headline": "Trump calls for Thune ouster: Kalshi 39%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-57VMK4QRS7",
  "target_event_slug": "kxtrumpthuneout-27jan01",
  "event_question": "Will Trump publicly call for John Thune to step down as Senate Majority Leader?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXTRUMPTHUNEOUT-27JAN01",
    "question_raw": "Will Donald Trump issue a statement about explicitly calling for John Thune to resign, step down, be replaced, or be removed from his position as Senate Majority Leader before Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.39,
    "volume_24h_usd": 327.31,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-08T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a 39% chance Trump publicly calls for John Thune to step down as Senate Majority Leader.",
    "The White House warning that Trump's patience is running out is an escalation signal, yet Kalshi keeps the probability below 40%, the market is not pricing an imminent public break as the base case.",
    "The Trump-Thune rift is also entangled with the stalled election bill and the crypto CLARITY Act impasse, providing multiple pressure vectors that could move this probability higher.",
    "Kalshi resolves via The Washington Post reporting a public call by Trump; the distinction between private pressure and a public demand is the key resolution edge case."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "dnyuz.com",
          "source_url": "https://dnyuz.com/2026/07/23/trump-thune-rift-intensifies-over-stalled-election-bill/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-24T10:13:15+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Tension between President Trump and Senate Majority Leader John Thune intensified after the White House said Trump's patience on the stalled election bill is running out.",
      "publisher": "dnyuz.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://dnyuz.com/2026/07/23/trump-thune-rift-intensifies-over-stalled-election-bill/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 39% resolves via The Washington Post; the rift news is concurrent with the current price, not a post-event lagging read."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "dnyuz.com: Trump-Thune Rift Intensifies Over Stalled Election Bill, DNYUZ",
      "url": "https://dnyuz.com/2026/07/23/trump-thune-rift-intensifies-over-stalled-election-bill/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-24T10:13:15+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-calls-for-thune-ouster-kalshi-39-2026-07-23/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-calls-for-thune-ouster-kalshi-39-2026-07-23.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}