{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100305",
  "record_slug": "trump-ceases-to-be-president-before-2027-polymarket-4-2026-10-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Trump leaving office before 2027 stays a long shot at 4 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 4%",
  "headline": "Trump ceases to be president before 2027: Polymarket 4%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-03",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZW6ZK09DB1",
  "target_event_slug": "trump-out-as-president-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Donald Trump cease to be President before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x48b0b0bca515f68fccf95af4793dbd0edbfec1f8ec6e8df2c0f69ba74f8c4722",
    "question_raw": "Trump out as President before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.039,
    "volume_24h_usd": 72484.399076,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts 4% on Trump ceasing to be president before 2027, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Declining approval and Democratic mobilization are political headwinds but carry no direct bearing on the removal or resignation scenarios this contract prices.",
    "The 4% pricing is unchanged in signal from the Iran war context (Story 16 same contract), confirming the market treats geopolitical and political risk symmetrically at this low level.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle requires a confirmed departure from the presidency; electoral or approval shifts alone do not trigger settlement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Bart Jansen",
          "source_url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/10/03/trump-rallies-republican-states-avoids-democrats/92026505007/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-03T07:47:35+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump is campaigning in traditional Republican strongholds ahead of the 2026 midterms amid plunging popularity, raising Democratic turnout concerns but no credible removal scenario.",
      "publisher": "Bart Jansen",
      "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/10/03/trump-rallies-republican-states-avoids-democrats/92026505007/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 4% is consistent across multiple news catalysts today, suggesting the market is not repricing removal risk on political popularity data."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Bart Jansen: Trump blitzes red states amid plunging popularity",
      "url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/10/03/trump-rallies-republican-states-avoids-democrats/92026505007/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-03T07:47:35+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-ceases-to-be-president-before-2027-polymarket-4-2026-10-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-ceases-to-be-president-before-2027-polymarket-4-2026-10-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}