{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081507",
  "record_slug": "trump-ceases-to-be-president-before-2027-polymarket-6-2026-08-15",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Trump leaving presidency before 2027 remains a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 6%",
  "headline": "Trump ceases to be president before 2027: Polymarket 6%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZW6ZK09DB1",
  "target_event_slug": "trump-out-as-president-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Donald Trump cease to be President before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x48b0b0bca515f68fccf95af4793dbd0edbfec1f8ec6e8df2c0f69ba74f8c4722",
    "question_raw": "Trump out as President before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.06,
    "volume_24h_usd": 74251.078032,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 6% probability on Donald Trump ceasing to be president before 2027, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Republican pressure over the Iran war and midterm fears is a notable political stress signal, but the market is not pricing meaningful removal or resignation risk.",
    "The 6% price suggests markets view the Iran war backlash as an electoral problem for Republicans rather than an existential threat to the Trump presidency.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle on any departure from office; the low probability holds regardless of the Iran conflict trajectory."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "usatoday.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/08/15/trump-iran-war-republicans-midterm-elections/91277119007/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-17T08:37:49+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Growing MAGA pressure on Trump to exit the Iran war amid warnings of severe midterm political consequences.",
      "publisher": "usatoday.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/08/15/trump-iran-war-republicans-midterm-elections/91277119007/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; at 6%, the market strongly dismisses near-term presidential succession scenarios despite political friction."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "usatoday.com: Republicans push Trump to find path out of Iran war as midterms near",
      "url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/08/15/trump-iran-war-republicans-midterm-elections/91277119007/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-17T08:37:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-ceases-to-be-president-before-2027-polymarket-6-2026-08-15/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-ceases-to-be-president-before-2027-polymarket-6-2026-08-15.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}