{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070707",
  "record_slug": "trump-creates-national-bitcoin-reserve-by-2027-kalshi-14-2026-07-07",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-07T05:34:22.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "National Bitcoin Reserve creation before 2027 holds at long odds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 14%",
  "headline": "Trump creates National Bitcoin Reserve by 2027: Kalshi 14%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-JQRXSG4ZX9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcreserve-27",
  "event_question": "Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCRESERVE-27-JAN01",
    "question_raw": "Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.14,
    "volume_24h_usd": 128.79,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The New York Times",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only a 14% probability that Trump formally creates a National Bitcoin Reserve before 2027, resolving via The New York Times.",
    "Despite executive order reporting, the market assigns low probability to formal reserve creation, consistent with a concurrent story that the initiative has stalled in an interdepartmental dispute between Treasury and Commerce.",
    "Bitcoin dropped below $73,000 amid Iran-US military escalation (Story 32), adding geopolitical risk-off pressure to an already uncertain crypto policy environment.",
    "Kalshi prices only a 10% chance Trump attempts to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (CM-EVT-TMHG8WLK69), suggesting the market does not see broader institutional disruption as the base case."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Editorial Team",
          "source_url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/us-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-established/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-08T10:13:38+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A news report described a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve established via executive order, treating seized Bitcoin as a long-term national asset, while a separate report said the initiative has stalled due to a Treasury-Commerce turf dispute.",
      "publisher": "Editorial Team",
      "published_at": "2026-07-07T05:34:22.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/us-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-established/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via New York Times reporting; the 14% price reflects market skepticism that an executive order translates into formal reserve status given the reported bureaucratic stall."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Editorial Team: US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve established as long-term national asset u",
      "url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/us-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-established/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-07T05:34:22.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-08T10:13:38+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-creates-national-bitcoin-reserve-by-2027-kalshi-14-2026-07-07/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-creates-national-bitcoin-reserve-by-2027-kalshi-14-2026-07-07.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}