{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082608",
  "record_slug": "trump-creates-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-2026-kalshi-10-2026-08-26",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-26T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 10%",
  "headline": "Trump creates National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026: Kalshi 10%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-JQRXSG4ZX9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcreserve-27",
  "event_question": "Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCRESERVE-27-JAN01",
    "question_raw": "Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.099,
    "volume_24h_usd": 88.4,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The New York Times",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only 10% odds that Trump establishes a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026, resolves via the New York Times.",
    "Surging institutional ETF demand and 5 billion dollars in tax-deferred Bitcoin-to-ETF swaps signal strong private-sector Bitcoin adoption, but this has not shifted the Kalshi reserve contract meaningfully.",
    "The Kalshi contract for Bitcoin's next halving by 2028 sits at 72%, showing market confidence in Bitcoin's long-term structure regardless of the reserve question.",
    "Resolves via the New York Times confirmation of a formal Trump executive action establishing a National Bitcoin Reserve before year-end 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Varinder Singh",
          "source_url": "https://coingape.com/bitcoin-whales-have-moved-into-blackrock-etfs-tax-deferred-swaps/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-27T18:46:25+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin whales moved 5 billion dollars into BlackRock's IBIT ETF via tax-deferred swaps, with the fund recording its highest year-to-date weekly cash inflow of 1.33 billion dollars.",
      "publisher": "Varinder Singh",
      "published_at": "2026-08-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://coingape.com/bitcoin-whales-have-moved-into-blackrock-etfs-tax-deferred-swaps/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 10% shows the market treats a formal Bitcoin reserve as a tail event despite record ETF inflows and legislative activity in Congress."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Varinder Singh: Bitcoin Whales Have Moved $5B into BlackRock ETFs in Tax-Deferred Swap",
      "url": "https://coingape.com/bitcoin-whales-have-moved-into-blackrock-etfs-tax-deferred-swaps/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-26T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-27T18:46:25+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-creates-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-2026-kalshi-10-2026-08-26/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-creates-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-2026-kalshi-10-2026-08-26.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}