{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100707",
  "record_slug": "trump-creates-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-07",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026 stays a distant long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 3%",
  "headline": "Trump creates National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026: Kalshi 3%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-JQRXSG4ZX9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcreserve-27",
  "event_question": "Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCRESERVE-27-JAN01",
    "question_raw": "Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.034,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3.59,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The New York Times",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only 3% odds on Trump creating a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026, resolving via The New York Times.",
    "Bitcoin's drop below $84,000 on geopolitical risk and ETF outflows is consistent with a market not pricing any near-term US government Bitcoin accumulation catalyst.",
    "Separately, Kalshi's CM-EVT-5Z1MKFCSL8 prices only 4% on a Fed emergency meeting in 2026, suggesting markets see macro stress as elevated but not crisis-level.",
    "Resolves via New York Times confirmation of an official National Bitcoin Reserve establishment by year-end 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Shaurya Malwa",
          "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/07/bitcoin-dips-below-usd84-000-as-oil-jumps-on-iranian-tanker-attacks",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T15:02:04+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin fell below $84,000 as oil prices jumped on Iranian tanker attacks, with risk-off sentiment and ETF outflows amplifying the move.",
      "publisher": "Shaurya Malwa",
      "published_at": "2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/07/bitcoin-dips-below-usd84-000-as-oil-jumps-on-iranian-tanker-attacks"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 3% signals that prediction markets treat a formal US Bitcoin Reserve as a near-impossibility in 2026 despite ongoing crypto policy discussion."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Shaurya Malwa: Bitcoin dips below $84,000 as oil jumps on Iranian tanker attacks",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/07/bitcoin-dips-below-usd84-000-as-oil-jumps-on-iranian-tanker-attacks",
      "published_at": "2026-10-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-07T15:02:04+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-creates-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-07/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-creates-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-2026-kalshi-3-2026-10-07.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}