{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071004",
  "record_slug": "trump-declares-election-emergency-kalshi-23-2026-07-10",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-10T04:00:10.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Election emergency declaration pricing holds skeptical",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 23%",
  "headline": "Trump declares election emergency: Kalshi 23%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-Q72X90WT99",
  "target_event_slug": "kxelectionemergency",
  "event_question": "Will Trump declare an election emergency?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXELECTIONEMERGENCY-26NOV04",
    "question_raw": "Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Nov 4, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.23,
    "volume_24h_usd": 269.23,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "the White House",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-11T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market prices a 23% chance Trump declares an election emergency, resolving via the White House.",
    "EAC dissolution removes a key institutional check on election administration, but the market is pricing only modest escalation odds toward a formal emergency declaration.",
    "The 91% on-schedule midterm contract (CM-EVT-HT9T7KMRT5) and the 23% emergency declaration contract are directionally consistent: markets see disruption as probable but outright cancellation or emergency as a tail.",
    "Resolution requires an official White House declaration; the gap between the EAC firing news and the 23% price suggests markets are treating this as political pressure, not constitutional crisis."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Michael Luciano",
          "source_url": "https://www.mediaite.com/politics/trump/trump-fires-members-of-bipartisan-election-commission/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-10T10:49:37+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "President Trump fired all members of the bipartisan Election Assistance Commission, the only federal body devoted solely to election administration.",
      "publisher": "Michael Luciano",
      "published_at": "2026-07-10T04:00:10.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.mediaite.com/politics/trump/trump-fires-members-of-bipartisan-election-commission/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via the White House; the 23% price is the market's current read on whether institutional disruption escalates to a formal emergency declaration."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Michael Luciano: Trump Fires Members of Bipartisan Election Commission",
      "url": "https://www.mediaite.com/politics/trump/trump-fires-members-of-bipartisan-election-commission/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-10T04:00:10.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-10T10:49:37+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-declares-election-emergency-kalshi-23-2026-07-10/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-declares-election-emergency-kalshi-23-2026-07-10.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}