{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081208",
  "record_slug": "trump-declares-election-interference-emergency-polymarket-32-2026-08-12",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Trump declaring election interference emergency stays below 35%",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 32%",
  "headline": "Trump declares election interference emergency: Polymarket 32%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-SGDQ0483R0",
  "target_event_slug": "trump-declares-election-interference-national-emergency",
  "event_question": "Will Trump declare election interference a national emergency?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x50378a9069427b82e68dd334fcf40bae1e077c0658214926c3635ff64c539bbc",
    "question_raw": "Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.32,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2296.09375,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 32% on Trump declaring election interference a national emergency, with trading volume up 2,975% day-over-day.",
    "The CNN report on Mullin using Homeland Security for voter-fraud efforts is driving fresh attention, reflected in the sharp volume surge.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-HT9T7KMRT5) prices 87% on midterm elections happening on schedule, implying markets do not expect a full disruption.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; an official presidential emergency declaration specifically citing election interference would be required to settle yes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Gabe Cohen, Priscilla Alvarez, Tierney Sneed",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/12/politics/trump-homeland-security-voter-fraud-crusade",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-14T09:03:59+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "CNN reports Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin is deploying department resources to further President Donald Trump's voter-fraud investigations ahead of the 2026 midterms.",
      "publisher": "Gabe Cohen, Priscilla Alvarez, Tierney Sneed",
      "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/12/politics/trump-homeland-security-voter-fraud-crusade"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 32% with a 30x volume spike signals the Homeland Security story is pulling fresh money into the contract, though it remains below even odds."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Gabe Cohen, Priscilla Alvarez, Tierney Sneed: How Trump turned Homeland Security into an engine of his voter fraud c",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/12/politics/trump-homeland-security-voter-fraud-crusade",
      "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-14T09:03:59+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-declares-election-interference-emergency-polymarket-32-2026-08-12/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-declares-election-interference-emergency-polymarket-32-2026-08-12.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}