{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102905",
  "record_slug": "trump-election-emergency-declaration-polymarket-26-2026-10-29",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Trump election emergency declaration stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 26%",
  "headline": "Trump election emergency declaration: Polymarket 26%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-SGDQ0483R0",
  "target_event_slug": "trump-declares-election-interference-national-emergency",
  "event_question": "Will Trump declare election interference a national emergency?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x50378a9069427b82e68dd334fcf40bae1e077c0658214926c3635ff64c539bbc",
    "question_raw": "Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.26,
    "volume_24h_usd": 7047.706123999999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Trump declaring election interference a national emergency at 26%, a minority probability despite active pre-midterm enforcement moves.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-Q72X90WT99) prices a Trump election emergency at only 8%, a notable cross-venue gap suggesting Polymarket traders are more alarmed by the rhetoric.",
    "The AP story documents concrete enforcement actions, not just rhetoric, yet neither market prices this as a likely formal emergency declaration.",
    "Resolves via uma_oracle on Polymarket and via the White House on Kalshi; the two resolution sources may diverge on timing of confirmation."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Nicholas Riccardi, Ali Swenson",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/midterms-trump-voting-election-interference-85ad12449d5900e74bece6df6d8d52d5",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-29T07:47:47+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "AP reports Trump is converting stolen-election rhetoric into action ahead of midterms, deploying Homeland Security task forces and expanding voter-fraud investigations.",
      "publisher": "Nicholas Riccardi, Ali Swenson",
      "published_at": "2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/midterms-trump-voting-election-interference-85ad12449d5900e74bece6df6d8d52d5"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 26% vs. Kalshi at 8% is the widest cross-venue spread in this batch; resolution-source differences may explain part of the gap."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Nicholas Riccardi, Ali Swenson: Trump turns stolen election claims from rhetoric to action | AP News",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/midterms-trump-voting-election-interference-85ad12449d5900e74bece6df6d8d52d5",
      "published_at": "2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-29T07:47:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-election-emergency-declaration-polymarket-26-2026-10-29/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-election-emergency-declaration-polymarket-26-2026-10-29.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}