{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100301",
  "record_slug": "trump-exits-before-2027-polymarket-3-2026-10-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Trump removal before 2027 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 3%",
  "headline": "Trump exits before 2027: Polymarket 3%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZW6ZK09DB1",
  "target_event_slug": "trump-out-as-president-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Donald Trump cease to be President before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x48b0b0bca515f68fccf95af4793dbd0edbfec1f8ec6e8df2c0f69ba74f8c4722",
    "question_raw": "Trump out as President before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.034,
    "volume_24h_usd": 54365.053993,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 3% on Trump ceasing to be president before 2027, keeping removal firmly in long-shot territory.",
    "Voter dissatisfaction in the AP-NORC poll is consistent with midterm headwinds for Republicans, but prediction markets show no meaningful signal of executive disruption.",
    "Separate Polymarket contract on Trump endorsing JD Vance for president before 2027 sits at just 4%, suggesting markets see limited political reshuffling at the top.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle requires a confirmed departure from office, not poll results or approval ratings."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Thomas Beaumont, Linley Sanders, AP",
          "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/03/democrats-republicans-trump-midterms-prices-healthcare-congress/d4047f58-bf24-11f1-81fc-9b76f8343b6c_story.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T07:47:36+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "An AP-NORC poll finds voters deeply dissatisfied with President Trump and Republicans ahead of the November 3 midterms, with Democrats favored on key issues.",
      "publisher": "Thomas Beaumont, Linley Sanders, AP",
      "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/03/democrats-republicans-trump-midterms-prices-healthcare-congress/d4047f58-bf24-11f1-81fc-9b76f8343b6c_story.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket covers both the removal question and the Vance-endorsement question; both sit in low single digits, showing broad consensus that the current executive structure holds through year-end."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Thomas Beaumont, Linley Sanders, AP: Voters favor Democrats on key issues but lack faith in either party to",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/03/democrats-republicans-trump-midterms-prices-healthcare-congress/d4047f58-bf24-11f1-81fc-9b76f8343b6c_story.html",
      "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T07:47:36+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-exits-before-2027-polymarket-3-2026-10-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-exits-before-2027-polymarket-3-2026-10-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}