{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091905",
  "record_slug": "trump-greenland-deal-by-dec-31-polymarket-95-2026-09-19",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Trump-Greenland deal by year-end stays heavily favored",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 95%",
  "headline": "Trump-Greenland deal by Dec 31: Polymarket 95%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-19",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-M8SXSN1YS7",
  "target_event_slug": "trump-x-greenland-deal-signed-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will a Trump-Greenland deal be signed by December 31?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x6a7aed00fae37de19e0b789a6b50a7475ff1afa898c50b9da11ca733a23199fa",
    "question_raw": "Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.954,
    "volume_24h_usd": 139988.76515099997,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts 95% odds on a Trump-Greenland deal being signed by December 31, 2026.",
    "The news confirms a deal framework exists, which is consistent with near-full pricing, the market treats the sovereignty dispute as a semantic issue, not a deal-breaker.",
    "Companion contracts on a US invasion of Greenland (3%) and a US-Denmark military clash (2%) remain at very low levels, suggesting markets see this as a diplomatic arrangement, not a conflict.",
    "Resolution via uma_oracle; the key edge case is whether the formal signing of a security cooperation agreement meets the contract's definition of a 'deal.'"
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Stine Jacobsen",
          "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/greenland-denmark-say-us-deal-will-not-cede-sovereignty-2026-09-19/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T12:14:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Greenland and Denmark stated that a US security deal struck with Trump will not cede sovereignty, while Trump declared permanent US control over Greenland security.",
      "publisher": "Stine Jacobsen",
      "published_at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/greenland-denmark-say-us-deal-will-not-cede-sovereignty-2026-09-19/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket resolves via uma_oracle at 95%; the sovereignty framing dispute between Copenhagen and Washington does not appear to register as a material risk to contract resolution."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Stine Jacobsen: Greenland, Denmark say US deal will not cede sovereignty | Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/greenland-denmark-say-us-deal-will-not-cede-sovereignty-2026-09-19/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T12:14:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-greenland-deal-by-dec-31-polymarket-95-2026-09-19/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-greenland-deal-by-dec-31-polymarket-95-2026-09-19.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}