{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110905",
  "record_slug": "trump-meets-putin-by-2026-polymarket-88-2026-11-09",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-09T07:08:26.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Trump-Putin meeting by year-end stays heavily favored",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 88%",
  "headline": "Trump meets Putin by 2026: Polymarket 88%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-10",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-TK9WNXXYF6",
  "target_event_slug": "trump-meets-with-putin-by",
  "event_question": "Will Trump meet with Putin by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x15ddba100cf49043ada06a98d63ac221cdca86da873485dcca72c174cb9cc300",
    "question_raw": "Trump meets with Putin by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.88,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1199.876742,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract prices an 88% chance Trump meets Putin before the end of 2026.",
    "News of a planned APEC meeting next week is consistent with the market's strong lean toward resolution as 'yes.'",
    "With a specific meeting reportedly scheduled for next week, the remaining 12% likely prices logistical or political cancellation risk.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle; cancellation of the APEC summit or a Trump schedule change would be the primary downside scenario."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Gael Camba",
          "source_url": "https://www.euronews.com/2026/11/09/donald-trump-plans-to-meet-vladimir-putin-and-xi-jinping-in-china-to-discuss-ending-iran-w",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T07:47:40+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Reports indicate US President Donald Trump plans to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at an APEC summit in China next week.",
      "publisher": "Gael Camba",
      "published_at": "2026-11-09T07:08:26.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.euronews.com/2026/11/09/donald-trump-plans-to-meet-vladimir-putin-and-xi-jinping-in-china-to-discuss-ending-iran-w"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract via UMA oracle; a confirmed next-week meeting would push this near full pricing."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Gael Camba: Donald Trump plans to meet Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in China to d",
      "url": "https://www.euronews.com/2026/11/09/donald-trump-plans-to-meet-vladimir-putin-and-xi-jinping-in-china-to-discuss-ending-iran-w",
      "published_at": "2026-11-09T07:08:26.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-09T07:47:40+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-meets-putin-by-2026-polymarket-88-2026-11-09/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-meets-putin-by-2026-polymarket-88-2026-11-09.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}