{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070606",
  "record_slug": "trump-national-bitcoin-reserve-by-2027-kalshi-13-2026-07-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-06T18:37:55.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "National Bitcoin Reserve by 2027 consensus wavers near low odds",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 13%",
  "headline": "Trump National Bitcoin Reserve by 2027: Kalshi 13%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-JQRXSG4ZX9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcreserve-27",
  "event_question": "Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCRESERVE-27-JAN01",
    "question_raw": "Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.13,
    "volume_24h_usd": 113.59,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The New York Times",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prediction market prices only a 13% probability that Trump creates a National Bitcoin Reserve before 2027.",
    "The Treasury-Commerce turf war reported today is consistent with Kalshi's low odds, showing implementation barriers the executive order alone could not resolve.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract on the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026 sits at 46%, suggesting broader crypto legislation may advance even as the reserve stalls.",
    "Kalshi resolves via New York Times reporting; formal establishment of the reserve, not just an executive order reaffirmation, is the settlement standard."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Editorial Team",
          "source_url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/trump-bitcoin-reserve-faces-hurdles/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-07T10:52:00+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump's Bitcoin reserve plan has stalled more than a year after Executive Order 14233 was signed, with interagency turf wars between Treasury and Commerce blocking implementation.",
      "publisher": "Editorial Team",
      "published_at": "2026-07-06T18:37:55.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/trump-bitcoin-reserve-faces-hurdles/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi resolves via New York Times confirmation; at 13% the market treats the interagency dispute as a material obstacle, not a procedural delay."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Editorial Team: Trump's Bitcoin reserve plan stalls amid Treasury-Commerce turf war: R",
      "url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/trump-bitcoin-reserve-faces-hurdles/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-06T18:37:55.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-07T10:52:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-national-bitcoin-reserve-by-2027-kalshi-13-2026-07-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-national-bitcoin-reserve-by-2027-kalshi-13-2026-07-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}