{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091707",
  "record_slug": "trump-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-2026-kalshi-10-2026-09-17",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026 stays a long shot despite House vote",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 10%",
  "headline": "Trump National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026: Kalshi 10%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-19",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-JQRXSG4ZX9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcreserve-27",
  "event_question": "Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCRESERVE-27-JAN01",
    "question_raw": "Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.095,
    "volume_24h_usd": 232.62,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The New York Times",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract prices only a 10% chance Trump formally creates a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026, with volume up 1,012,338% day over day, reflecting massive fresh interest.",
    "House committee passage is a positive step, but the Senate's rejection of the CLARITY Act this week illustrates the legislative difficulty facing crypto bills in the current Congress.",
    "The companion Polymarket contract on the US establishing a national Bitcoin reserve before 2027 sits at 7%, a consistent cross-venue read that the House advance is far from decisive.",
    "Resolves via The New York Times as the named resolution source; executive action versus legislation is a key settlement edge case given Trump's existing executive-order reserve."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cointelegraph.com",
          "source_url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-bitcoin-reserve-bill-passes-house-committee",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T07:47:13+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A House committee advanced a bill to codify Trump's Bitcoin reserve policy into law on September 17, 2026, after the crypto industry's CLARITY Act failed in the Senate.",
      "publisher": "cointelegraph.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-bitcoin-reserve-bill-passes-house-committee"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 10% with a 1,012,338% volume surge confirms the House committee vote is generating intense market attention, but pricing treats full legislative enactment as unlikely in 2026."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cointelegraph.com: US Bitcoin reserve bill passes House Committee",
      "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-bitcoin-reserve-bill-passes-house-committee",
      "published_at": "2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T07:47:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-2026-kalshi-10-2026-09-17/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-2026-kalshi-10-2026-09-17.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}