{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081508",
  "record_slug": "trump-out-as-president-before-2027-polymarket-5-2026-08-15",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Trump ceasing to be president before 2027 stays a long shot at 5%",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 5%",
  "headline": "Trump out as president before 2027: Polymarket 5%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZW6ZK09DB1",
  "target_event_slug": "trump-out-as-president-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Donald Trump cease to be President before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x48b0b0bca515f68fccf95af4793dbd0edbfec1f8ec6e8df2c0f69ba74f8c4722",
    "question_raw": "Trump out as President before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.05,
    "volume_24h_usd": 6968.095517,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the probability of Trump ceasing to be president before 2027 at 5%, a strong long-shot read despite mounting intra-party Iran war pressure.",
    "Republican pressure over the Iran war is notable, but the 5% price shows the market assigns negligible probability to that pressure translating into removal or resignation before year-end.",
    "The Kalshi contract on whether 2026 will be a bad year for Trump sits at 5% as well, while a separate Kalshi contract on a successful year also sits at just 3%, both near-null readings suggest the market sees the Iran war as an ongoing drag, not a decisive break either way.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle based on Trump's official presidential status before January 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "usatoday.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/08/15/trump-iran-war-republicans-midterm-elections/91277119007/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-16T08:23:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "A growing number of prominent MAGA figures are urging President Trump to find an exit from the Iran war ahead of the 2026 midterms, warning of dire political consequences.",
      "publisher": "usatoday.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/08/15/trump-iran-war-republicans-midterm-elections/91277119007/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 5% on Trump leaving office before 2027 reflects a market treating intra-party Iran war dissent as politically manageable rather than existential."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "usatoday.com: Republicans push Trump to find path out of Iran war as midterms near",
      "url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/08/15/trump-iran-war-republicans-midterm-elections/91277119007/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-16T08:23:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-out-as-president-before-2027-polymarket-5-2026-08-15/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-out-as-president-before-2027-polymarket-5-2026-08-15.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}