{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092208",
  "record_slug": "trump-out-as-president-before-2027-polymarket-5-2026-09-22",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Trump leaving presidency before 2027 stays near zero at 5 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 5%",
  "headline": "Trump out as president before 2027: Polymarket 5%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-22",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZW6ZK09DB1",
  "target_event_slug": "trump-out-as-president-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Donald Trump cease to be President before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x48b0b0bca515f68fccf95af4793dbd0edbfec1f8ec6e8df2c0f69ba74f8c4722",
    "question_raw": "Trump out as President before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.05,
    "volume_24h_usd": 47658.059626,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the probability of Donald Trump ceasing to be president before 2027 at 5%.",
    "Iran's reported strategy of escalating to inflict political pain on Trump has not moved the Polymarket contract meaningfully off its low base.",
    "Sinking approval ratings on the economy and the Iran war, per the Reuters/Ipsos poll, add political pressure but are not translating into any serious market-priced removal risk.",
    "Resolves via uma oracle; the pre-2027 horizon means the contract covers only the remaining months of 2026, keeping the window narrow."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Brian Bennett",
          "source_url": "https://www.ms.now/news/trump-iran-war-midterms-pain",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-22T13:03:08+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran is reportedly escalating the conflict to drive up oil prices and increase political pain for President Donald Trump ahead of the 2026 midterms.",
      "publisher": "Brian Bennett",
      "published_at": "2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.ms.now/news/trump-iran-war-midterms-pain"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 5% on Trump leaving office before 2027 reflects market indifference to geopolitical pressure tactics despite a deteriorating approval backdrop."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Brian Bennett: ‘Pain for Trump’: Iran is trying to escalate the war before the midter",
      "url": "https://www.ms.now/news/trump-iran-war-midterms-pain",
      "published_at": "2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-22T13:03:08+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-out-as-president-before-2027-polymarket-5-2026-09-22/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-out-as-president-before-2027-polymarket-5-2026-09-22.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}