{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092408",
  "record_slug": "trump-putin-zelensky-joint-appearance-polymarket-9-2026-09-24",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 9%",
  "headline": "Trump-Putin-Zelensky joint appearance: Polymarket 9%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-24",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QP1YL1BSS0",
  "target_event_slug": "trump-putin-and-zelensky-seen-together-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Trump, Putin, and Zelensky be seen together before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xa04dcb7b7f5a313d09e7728ca39835be4096da877ca5fbae5e3a36af239433c3",
    "question_raw": "Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.09,
    "volume_24h_usd": 113,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on Trump, Putin, and Zelensky being seen together before 2027 prices at 9%.",
    "Ongoing Russian strikes and Zelensky's public pressure campaign are consistent with a low-probability reading on any three-way summit materializing this year.",
    "Companion Polymarket contract on Putin no longer being President of Russia by end of 2026 sits at 4%, suggesting the market sees the current conflict dynamic as stable if grim.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle, requiring documented evidence of all three leaders appearing together before January 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service",
          "source_url": "https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-attacks-diplomacy-un-sanctions/33863366.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-24T13:07:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Russia launched deadly missile and drone attacks across Ukraine, killing at least eight civilians, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for increased international pressure on President Vladimir Putin.",
      "publisher": "RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service",
      "published_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-attacks-diplomacy-un-sanctions/33863366.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 9% three-way summit contract and 4% Putin-exit contract together frame the market's view: no near-term peace breakthrough and no leadership change expected."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service: Russia Launches Deadly Attacks On Ukraine; Zelenskyy Calls For Pressur",
      "url": "https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-attacks-diplomacy-un-sanctions/33863366.html",
      "published_at": "2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-24T13:07:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-putin-zelensky-joint-appearance-polymarket-9-2026-09-24/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-putin-zelensky-joint-appearance-polymarket-9-2026-09-24.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}