{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101005",
  "record_slug": "trump-putin-zelensky-meeting-before-2027-polymarket-6-2026-10-10",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Trump, Putin, Zelensky meeting before 2027 stays near 6 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 6%",
  "headline": "Trump-Putin-Zelensky meeting before 2027: Polymarket 6%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FNBRJ6KY59",
  "target_event_slug": "trump-putin-and-zelensky-meet-together-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xe96fd18679de58fa286f10b49d93f46829243cd105d74ce5d18eae0dd973b204",
    "question_raw": "Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.06,
    "volume_24h_usd": 115.769472,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket prediction market prices a Trump-Putin-Zelensky in-person meeting before 2027 at 6%.",
    "The reported breakdown between Trump and Zelensky over the diesel deal makes a tripartite summit even less likely near term; the 6% level is consistent with that deterioration.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract on Trump, Putin, and Zelensky being seen together (CM-EVT-QP1YL1BSS0) also sits at 6%, confirming cross-market alignment.",
    "Resolution via uma_oracle requires documented evidence of all three leaders meeting together before January 1, 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Barak Ravid",
          "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/10/10/trump-zelensky-putin-diesel-deal-war",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-10T07:47:51+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "A US official said Trump cut the Russian diesel deal with Putin after Zelensky ignored Trump's requests, deepening the Kyiv-Washington rift.",
      "publisher": "Barak Ravid",
      "published_at": "2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/10/10/trump-zelensky-putin-diesel-deal-war"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 6%; resolves via uma_oracle on a confirmed joint appearance of all three leaders."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Barak Ravid: U.S. official: Trump cut deal with Putin after Zelensky ignored his re",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/10/10/trump-zelensky-putin-diesel-deal-war",
      "published_at": "2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-10T07:47:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-putin-zelensky-meeting-before-2027-polymarket-6-2026-10-10/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-putin-zelensky-meeting-before-2027-polymarket-6-2026-10-10.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}