{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100808",
  "record_slug": "trump-putin-zelensky-seen-together-before-2027-polymarket-6-2026-10-08",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Trump-Putin-Zelensky summit remains a long shot at 6 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 6%",
  "headline": "Trump, Putin, Zelensky seen together before 2027: Polymarket 6%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QP1YL1BSS0",
  "target_event_slug": "trump-putin-and-zelensky-seen-together-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Trump, Putin, and Zelensky be seen together before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xa04dcb7b7f5a313d09e7728ca39835be4096da877ca5fbae5e3a36af239433c3",
    "question_raw": "Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.06,
    "volume_24h_usd": 55.7,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a Trump-Putin-Zelensky trilateral appearance before 2027 at just 6%, a deep long shot.",
    "Continued large-scale Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian cities are consistent with no near-term summit scenario being priced.",
    "Trading volume on this contract surged 173.8x day-over-day, suggesting the escalating strikes are actively drawing fresh attention to peace-process markets.",
    "Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; all three leaders must be seen together, a separate bilateral meeting would not satisfy this contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Namita Singh",
          "source_url": "https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-live-putin-zelensky-missile-drone-stikes-b3063202.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08T07:48:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Russian missile strikes killed at least 25 people across Ukrainian cities in a massive overnight attack, deepening the conflict.",
      "publisher": "Namita Singh",
      "published_at": "2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-live-putin-zelensky-missile-drone-stikes-b3063202.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 6% with 173.8x volume spike; escalating strikes are generating heavy interest but not repricing the probability upward."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Namita Singh: Russia-Ukraine war latest: Children killed while they slept among 25 d",
      "url": "https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-live-putin-zelensky-missile-drone-stikes-b3063202.html",
      "published_at": "2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08T07:48:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-putin-zelensky-seen-together-before-2027-polymarket-6-2026-10-08/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-putin-zelensky-seen-together-before-2027-polymarket-6-2026-10-08.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}