{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101706",
  "record_slug": "trump-putin-zelensky-together-before-2027-polymarket-3-2026-10-17",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Trump-Putin-Zelensky joint appearance stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 3%",
  "headline": "Trump, Putin, Zelensky together before 2027: Polymarket 3%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QP1YL1BSS0",
  "target_event_slug": "trump-putin-and-zelensky-seen-together-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Trump, Putin, and Zelensky be seen together before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xa04dcb7b7f5a313d09e7728ca39835be4096da877ca5fbae5e3a36af239433c3",
    "question_raw": "Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.03,
    "volume_24h_usd": 68.43,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 3% odds on Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky being seen together before 2027.",
    "Trump's sanctions waiver and public row with Zelensky are consistent with this near-zero probability: the market does not see a trilateral summit as a realistic near-term outcome.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-FNBRJ6KY59) at 7% on a formal Trump-Putin-Zelensky meeting shows some premium for a structured summit over an informal joint sighting, but both remain deeply discounted.",
    "Resolution is via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the 3% vs 7% spread between 'seen together' and 'meet together' reflects minimal incremental probability even for the weaker threshold."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Max Matza",
          "source_url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cxr5yvzv7rp0o",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-17T11:57:10+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump waived multiple Russia sanctions two days before they were set to take effect, deepening his dispute with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.",
      "publisher": "Max Matza",
      "published_at": "2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cxr5yvzv7rp0o"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; the near-identical pricing across both Trump-Putin-Zelensky contracts signals the market views diplomatic contact at any level as highly unlikely in 2026."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Max Matza: Trump waives several Russia sanctions as row with Zelensky intensifies",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cxr5yvzv7rp0o",
      "published_at": "2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-17T11:57:10+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-putin-zelensky-together-before-2027-polymarket-3-2026-10-17/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-putin-zelensky-together-before-2027-polymarket-3-2026-10-17.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}