{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102806",
  "record_slug": "tx-34-house-seat-republican-win-kalshi-89-2026-10-28",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-28T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republican candidate in TX-34 stays heavily favored",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 89%",
  "headline": "TX-34 House seat Republican win: Kalshi 89%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-F19JK9H606",
  "target_event_slug": "housetx34-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Republican candidate win the TX-34 House seat in the next election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "HOUSETX34-26-D",
    "question_raw": "Will Democratic win the House race for TX-34?",
    "current_price": 0.89,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1321.99,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi places 89% on the Republican candidate winning the TX-34 House seat, resolving via the Library of Congress; trading volume surged 6,564% day over day.",
    "The sharp volume spike signals fresh attention on this seat as midterm campaigns enter their final days and early voting accelerates.",
    "TX-34 has historically been competitive; the 89% pricing with a volume surge suggests the market is moving to price the Republican as a strong but not certain favorite.",
    "The Kalshi contract on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after the midterms (CM-EVT-4DFCBXLZN6) sits at 74%, framing a broadly favorable but not dominant Republican map."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Caroline Linton Associate Managing Editor, Politics",
          "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/2026-elections-midtems-house-senate-trump/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-28T14:49:33+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Midterm campaigns are making their final push before Election Day with early voters already at the polls across the country.",
      "publisher": "Caroline Linton Associate Managing Editor, Politics",
      "published_at": "2026-10-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/2026-elections-midtems-house-senate-trump/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 89% on TX-34 with a 66x volume surge is the sharpest signal of late-cycle attention in the midterm contract suite today."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Caroline Linton Associate Managing Editor, Politics: Live Updates: 2026 midterm campaigns make final push before Election D",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/2026-elections-midtems-house-senate-trump/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-28T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-28T14:49:33+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/tx-34-house-seat-republican-win-kalshi-89-2026-10-28/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/tx-34-house-seat-republican-win-kalshi-89-2026-10-28.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}