{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080403",
  "record_slug": "u-3-unemployment-implied-at-4-2-4-3-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Unemployment rate seen near 4.2-4.3% despite resilient labor data",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "U-3 unemployment implied at 4.2-4.3%: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-09-04"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-CN1M891289",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3-26aug",
  "event_question": "U-3 unemployment rate (August 2026)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26AUG-T4.3",
    "question_raw": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in August?",
    "current_price": 0.39,
    "volume_24h_usd": 39.39,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-04T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies U-3 unemployment in the 4.2-4.3% range: 61% above 4.2%, but only 39% above 4.3%, and just 12% above 4.4%.",
    "Falling labor force participation, per St. Louis Fed research, can hold the headline unemployment rate down even as underlying labor conditions soften, consistent with market pricing near 4.2-4.3%.",
    "A companion October ladder (CM-EVT-2X91TW50H2) also centers at 4.2-4.3%, suggesting the market sees no significant near-term deterioration in the unemployment trajectory.",
    "Both ladders resolve via Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation releases; participation-rate distortions could shift the realized rate above or below the implied range."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "stlouisfed.org",
          "source_url": "https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/aug/what-is-behind-sharp-drop-labor-force-participation",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-06T10:35:15+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The St. Louis Fed published research noting a sharp drop in labor force participation in 2026, which can mask underlying labor market weakness even as headline job metrics hold firm.",
      "publisher": "stlouisfed.org",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/aug/what-is-behind-sharp-drop-labor-force-participation"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via BLS; the August and October distributions are tightly aligned, both centering at 4.2-4.3% U-3."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "stlouisfed.org: What’s Behind the Sharp Drop in Labor Force Participation? | St. Louis",
      "url": "https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/aug/what-is-behind-sharp-drop-labor-force-participation",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-06T10:35:15+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/u-3-unemployment-implied-at-4-2-4-3-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/u-3-unemployment-implied-at-4-2-4-3-kalshi-ladder-2026-08-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}