{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260820VS05",
  "record_slug": "u-s-agrees-to-a-new-trade-deal-with-ca-vol-13493",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-20T08:33:38+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Odds on a U.S.-Canada trade deal before 2027 stay low",
  "telemetry": "22% · $13K 24h",
  "headline": "U.S.-Canada trade deal by 2027: 22% on $13K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RNYN7VH246",
  "target_event_slug": "which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-with-before-2027-921",
  "event_question": "Will Trump make new trade deals with specific countries before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x81e8f9fd1c08c597b716ea800a97c6d04d60c985a2c388bc6d77a0f85e643df8",
    "question_raw": "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with \"Canada\" before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.22,
    "volume_24h_usd": 13493.108742,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 17535.046599,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices 22%, market remains skeptical a formal deal closes before January 2027.",
    "24h volume $13K is 77% of all-time, nearly the entire contract's history traded in a single session.",
    "77% all-time share in one day flags a breaking diplomatic development or headline driving fresh attention.",
    "Resolves on deal announcement before January 1, 2027; roughly four months of window remain."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 13493.108742
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Trump make new trade deals with specific countries",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-with-before-2027-921",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-20T08:33:38+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/u-s-agrees-to-a-new-trade-deal-with-ca-vol-13493/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/u-s-agrees-to-a-new-trade-deal-with-ca-vol-13493.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}