{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260630VS05",
  "record_slug": "u-s-forces-in-gaza-before-2027-vol-69726",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-30T10:55:12+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Flows test the ceiling on U.S. ground force deployment in Gaza",
  "telemetry": "13% · $70K 24h",
  "headline": "U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027: 13% on $70K spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-B5LVQVPB08",
  "target_event_slug": "us-forces-in-gaza-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will U.S. forces be deployed in Gaza before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x10dc09c7fb32ce782e2f1f383eb84c2b5434281f488e6eb6651b2a7d91ac3d34",
    "question_raw": "U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.13,
    "volume_24h_usd": 69726.70000000001,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 156309.594335,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket at 13%, market assigns a non-trivial but minority probability to deployment.",
    "24h volume $70K is 45% of all-time, a meaningful mid-cycle attention surge.",
    "Geopolitical escalation signals or congressional debate may be driving renewed positioning.",
    "Contract runs through end-2026; 13% reflects low but live tail risk for a desk."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 69726.70000000001
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will U.S. forces be deployed in Gaza before 2027?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/us-forces-in-gaza-before-2027",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-30T10:55:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/u-s-forces-in-gaza-before-2027-vol-69726/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/u-s-forces-in-gaza-before-2027-vol-69726.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}