{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101707",
  "record_slug": "ukraine-armed-forces-cap-before-2027-polymarket-3-2026-10-17",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Ukraine limits on armed forces size remain a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 3%",
  "headline": "Ukraine armed forces cap before 2027: Polymarket 3%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MSK2LZ3W00",
  "target_event_slug": "ukraine-agrees-to-limit-size-of-armed-forces-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Ukraine agree to limit the size of its armed forces before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xec4e5a2666b14fedded928dc4dcd6b5f2d38cc1eba91755b8aa6de1fabd42a2f",
    "question_raw": "Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.03,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 3% odds on Ukraine agreeing to limit the size of its armed forces before 2027, despite treaty expiration pressure.",
    "Trading volume on this Polymarket contract rose roughly 74x day over day, drawing fresh attention as the New START expiration and arms control discussions dominate headlines.",
    "Putin's declared 'security zone' inside Ukrainian territory and Trump's sanctions waiver make Ukrainian concessions on force size appear remote to market participants.",
    "Resolution is via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the 3% pricing alongside surging volume suggests the market is actively reconfirming this as a long shot rather than repricing it higher."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "link.cfr.org",
          "source_url": "https://link.cfr.org/public/43958089",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-17T11:57:10+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The last US-Russia nuclear arms control treaty expires today as eleventh-hour talks explore a possible extension, against a backdrop of deepening Russia-Ukraine conflict.",
      "publisher": "link.cfr.org",
      "published_at": "2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://link.cfr.org/public/43958089"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; volume up 74x day over day is the key signal here, the market is pricing in new information and holding near zero, not moving toward the event."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "link.cfr.org: Across the Globe",
      "url": "https://link.cfr.org/public/43958089",
      "published_at": "2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-17T11:57:10+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-armed-forces-cap-before-2027-polymarket-3-2026-10-17/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-armed-forces-cap-before-2027-polymarket-3-2026-10-17.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}