{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090506",
  "record_slug": "ukraine-cedes-territory-by-2026-polymarket-10-2026-09-05",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Ukraine ceding territory to Russia by year-end stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 10%",
  "headline": "Ukraine cedes territory by 2026: Polymarket 10%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-XP7FFT2MC9",
  "target_event_slug": "will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x21bf9a7dae81b6bd51acae73185686ab8997b81b1401e4be10e114d472599c26",
    "question_raw": "Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.1,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3158.6622490000004,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 10% odds that Ukraine will agree to cede territory to Russia by end of 2026, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Despite the Witkoff-Kushner diplomatic mission, the market treats a territorial concession deal as a long shot, the peace push is not moving the needle to YES.",
    "Russia's rejection of Zelensky's proposed air truce and continued strikes during the envoys' visit reinforce the market's skeptical pricing.",
    "Companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-QP1YL1BSS0) puts just 7% on Trump, Putin, and Zelensky being seen together before 2027, suggesting the market sees summit-level engagement as even less likely than a territorial deal."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "france24.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260905-trump-sends-envoys-to-moscow-and-kyiv-with-new-plan-to-end-the-war",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-05T11:34:19+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner traveled to Moscow and Kyiv with a new proposal to end the Russia-Ukraine war.",
      "publisher": "france24.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260905-trump-sends-envoys-to-moscow-and-kyiv-with-new-plan-to-end-the-war"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 10% is fading the diplomatic optimism in the headlines; Russia's continued strikes are consistent with the low probability."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "france24.com: Trump sends envoys Witkoff and Kushner to Moscow and Kyiv with new pla",
      "url": "https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260905-trump-sends-envoys-to-moscow-and-kyiv-with-new-plan-to-end-the-war",
      "published_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-05T11:34:19+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-cedes-territory-by-2026-polymarket-10-2026-09-05/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-cedes-territory-by-2026-polymarket-10-2026-09-05.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}