{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102203",
  "record_slug": "ukraine-cedes-territory-by-2026-polymarket-7-2026-10-22",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Ukraine ceding territory to Russia stays near long-shot odds",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 7%",
  "headline": "Ukraine cedes territory by 2026: Polymarket 7%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-23",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-XP7FFT2MC9",
  "target_event_slug": "will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x21bf9a7dae81b6bd51acae73185686ab8997b81b1401e4be10e114d472599c26",
    "question_raw": "Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.07,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3051.9567030000003,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on Ukraine agreeing to cede territory to Russia by 2026 sits at 7%, a firm long shot despite renewed diplomatic signals.",
    "Missiles hitting Kyiv the same day Putin signaled openness to talks illustrates the gap between diplomatic posture and battlefield reality, consistent with the market's skepticism.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract on Trump, Putin, and Zelensky being seen together before 2027 also prices at 7%, showing the market assigns near-identical odds to symbolic summitry and territorial concession.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; a territorial cession would require formal Ukrainian government acknowledgment, a high bar given current Kyiv positioning."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Shweta Sharma",
          "source_url": "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-live-updates-putin-witkoff-trump-b3070846.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-22T07:47:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Putin agreed in principle to resume peace talks even as Russian missiles struck Kyiv, with Zelensky pressing allies for security guarantees within seven to ten days.",
      "publisher": "Shweta Sharma",
      "published_at": "2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-live-updates-putin-witkoff-trump-b3070846.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 7%; companion three-way summit contract (CM-EVT-QP1YL1BSS0) also at 7%, suggesting the market sees both outcomes as equally remote."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Shweta Sharma: Ukraine-Russia war latest: Missiles hit Kyiv as Putin agrees ‘in princ",
      "url": "https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-live-updates-putin-witkoff-trump-b3070846.html",
      "published_at": "2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-22T07:47:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-cedes-territory-by-2026-polymarket-7-2026-10-22/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-cedes-territory-by-2026-polymarket-7-2026-10-22.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}