{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090306",
  "record_slug": "ukraine-cedes-territory-by-2026-polymarket-8-2026-09-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-03T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Ukraine ceding territory to Russia by 2026 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 8%",
  "headline": "Ukraine cedes territory by 2026: Polymarket 8%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-XP7FFT2MC9",
  "target_event_slug": "will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x21bf9a7dae81b6bd51acae73185686ab8997b81b1401e4be10e114d472599c26",
    "question_raw": "Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.08,
    "volume_24h_usd": 308.35,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on Ukraine agreeing to cede territory to Russia by 2026 is priced at 8%, a long-shot outcome.",
    "Putin's rhetorical openness to peace coexists with NATO warnings of Russian recklessness; the 8% price reflects the market's view that a territorial concession this year remains unlikely.",
    "The companion contract on Putin no longer being Russian president by end-2026 sits at 6%, suggesting markets see both the regime and the conflict as stable through year-end.",
    "Resolution requires a formal Ukrainian agreement to cede territory before December 31, 2026, via an unspecified named resolution source."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Elsa Ohlen",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/03/putin-peace-russia-ukraine-nato-defense.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-03T12:30:58+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Putin floated a 'chance' for peace while insisting Russia and Ukraine must resolve the conflict themselves, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned of increasingly reckless Russian behavior.",
      "publisher": "Elsa Ohlen",
      "published_at": "2026-09-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/03/putin-peace-russia-ukraine-nato-defense.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Both priced Polymarket contracts on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, territory cession at 8% and Putin removal at 6%, point to low odds of major political or territorial shifts in 2026."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Elsa Ohlen: Putin floats 'chance' at peace, NATO chief warns of 'reckless' Russia",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/03/putin-peace-russia-ukraine-nato-defense.html",
      "published_at": "2026-09-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-03T12:30:58+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-cedes-territory-by-2026-polymarket-8-2026-09-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-cedes-territory-by-2026-polymarket-8-2026-09-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}