{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091606",
  "record_slug": "ukraine-cedes-territory-by-2026-polymarket-8-2026-09-16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-16T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Ukraine ceding territory to Russia by 2026 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 8%",
  "headline": "Ukraine cedes territory by 2026: Polymarket 8%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-16",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-XP7FFT2MC9",
  "target_event_slug": "will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x21bf9a7dae81b6bd51acae73185686ab8997b81b1401e4be10e114d472599c26",
    "question_raw": "Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.08,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1227.932223,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on Ukraine agreeing to cede territory to Russia by 2026 is priced at 8%, with trading volume up 1,928% day over day.",
    "Zelensky's public rejection of territorial concessions is consistent with the low 8% pricing, though the sharp volume surge signals fresh attention on the question.",
    "The companion Polymarket contract on Ukraine giving up the rest of Donbas before 2027 sits at 5%, suggesting the market puts similarly long odds on any partial territorial deal.",
    "Both contracts resolve via UMA oracle; Zelensky's stated willingness to accept a front-line ceasefire without formal territorial recognition may keep these probabilities from moving sharply lower."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Kyiv Post",
          "source_url": "https://www.kyivpost.com/post/84612",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-16T13:02:46+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia wants all of Ukraine and rejected the 'win-win' peace concept, while offering a no-conditions ceasefire along the current front line.",
      "publisher": "Kyiv Post",
      "published_at": "2026-09-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.kyivpost.com/post/84612"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket prices territorial concession at 8% with a 20-fold volume spike, signaling elevated attention even as Zelensky's statements align with the low-probability read."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Kyiv Post: Zelensky Says Putin Wants All of Ukraine, Rejects ‘Win-Win’ Peace Conc",
      "url": "https://www.kyivpost.com/post/84612",
      "published_at": "2026-09-16T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-16T13:02:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-cedes-territory-by-2026-polymarket-8-2026-09-16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-cedes-territory-by-2026-polymarket-8-2026-09-16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}