{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072406",
  "record_slug": "ukraine-cedes-territory-to-russia-by-2026-polymarket-11-2026-07-24",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Ukraine ceding territory to Russia by year-end stays below 25 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 11%",
  "headline": "Ukraine cedes territory to Russia by 2026: Polymarket 11%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-XP7FFT2MC9",
  "target_event_slug": "will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x21bf9a7dae81b6bd51acae73185686ab8997b81b1401e4be10e114d472599c26",
    "question_raw": "Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.11,
    "volume_24h_usd": 8.45,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices an 11% chance Ukraine formally agrees to cede territory to Russia by end of 2026.",
    "A Ukraine-U.S. alignment on a peace push and a planned Trump-Zelenskyy meeting signal diplomatic momentum, but the Polymarket contract at 11% shows the market treats a territorial concession this year as a long shot.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 2026 (CM-EVT-LVRHCH4653) priced 36%, implying the broader ceasefire question attracted more probability than a territorial deal specifically.",
    "Resolution via Polymarket UMA oracle based on an official Ukrainian government commitment to cede recognized Ukrainian territory."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "kyivindependent.com",
          "source_url": "https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-us-align-on-new-peace-push-as-officials-say-russia-may-accept-air-ceasefire/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-25T09:42:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Ukraine and the U.S. have aligned on a new peace push, with officials hoping Russia accepts an air truce as Trump and Zelenskyy prepare to meet.",
      "publisher": "kyivindependent.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-us-align-on-new-peace-push-as-officials-say-russia-may-accept-air-ceasefire/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 11% shows the market is skeptical any peace breakthrough translates into a formal territorial concession by year-end."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "kyivindependent.com: Exclusive: Ukraine, US align on new peace push as officials hope Russi",
      "url": "https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-us-align-on-new-peace-push-as-officials-say-russia-may-accept-air-ceasefire/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-24T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-25T09:42:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-cedes-territory-to-russia-by-2026-polymarket-11-2026-07-24/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-cedes-territory-to-russia-by-2026-polymarket-11-2026-07-24.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}