{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100907",
  "record_slug": "ukraine-cedes-territory-to-russia-by-2026-polymarket-5-2026-10-09",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-09T07:14:17.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Ukraine ceding territory to Russia by year-end stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 5%",
  "headline": "Ukraine cedes territory to Russia by 2026: Polymarket 5%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-XP7FFT2MC9",
  "target_event_slug": "will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x21bf9a7dae81b6bd51acae73185686ab8997b81b1401e4be10e114d472599c26",
    "question_raw": "Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.05,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1553.4099999999999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 5% on Ukraine agreeing to cede territory to Russia by end of 2026.",
    "The Miami talks signal active diplomacy, but the near-zero probability reflects markets seeing a formal territorial concession by year-end as highly unlikely despite the negotiations.",
    "The Polymarket contract on Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meeting together before 2027 sits at just 5%, suggesting markets see even the preconditions for a settlement as remote.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; a formal, publicly announced Ukrainian agreement to cede specific territory would be required to settle YES."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Alex Raufoglu",
          "source_url": "https://www.rferl.org/a/us-ukraine-talks-miami-russian-air-strikes/33873365.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-09T07:48:13+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US, Ukrainian, and European officials gathered in Miami to discuss new proposals for breaking the war stalemate amid ongoing Russian strikes killing dozens.",
      "publisher": "Alex Raufoglu",
      "published_at": "2026-10-09T07:14:17.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.rferl.org/a/us-ukraine-talks-miami-russian-air-strikes/33873365.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 5% shows diplomacy in Miami has not shifted market pricing on territorial concession; long-shot pricing holds despite high-level talks."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Alex Raufoglu: US, Ukraine Set For Talks In Miami Amid Onslaught Of Russian Air Strik",
      "url": "https://www.rferl.org/a/us-ukraine-talks-miami-russian-air-strikes/33873365.html",
      "published_at": "2026-10-09T07:14:17.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-09T07:48:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-cedes-territory-to-russia-by-2026-polymarket-5-2026-10-09/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-cedes-territory-to-russia-by-2026-polymarket-5-2026-10-09.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}