{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090905",
  "record_slug": "ukraine-peace-deal-before-2027-polymarket-11-2026-09-09",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-09T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Ukraine peace deal before 2027 remains a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 11%",
  "headline": "Ukraine peace deal before 2027: Polymarket 11%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-09",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424",
  "target_event_slug": "ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x4167e22670f31e5f93d132f78108f3fae809bd15cadf78983eff096845ed1415",
    "question_raw": "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.11,
    "volume_24h_usd": 11422.923334,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 11% odds on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, with trading volume up 4,170% day-over-day, a 42.7x surge.",
    "The allies-see-war-extending-into-2027 assessment is consistent with the 11% pricing; the market is not treating the Putin-envoy meeting as a breakthrough signal.",
    "The extraordinary volume spike confirms the Polymarket contract is drawing significant fresh attention in direct response to the Putin-Trump call and envoy meeting news.",
    "Resolution via Polymarket UMA oracle; the contract requires a signed peace agreement, not a ceasefire announcement or framework accord."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "straitstimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/ukraine-allies-see-war-going-into-2027-after-russias-putin-met-us-envoys",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-09T12:40:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Ukraine's allies assessed the war will extend into 2027 after Russian President Vladimir Putin met US envoys but offered no ceasefire terms.",
      "publisher": "straitstimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-09T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/ukraine-allies-see-war-going-into-2027-after-russias-putin-met-us-envoys"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 11% with a 42.7x volume surge is the defining signal here; elevated activity alongside low odds reflects attention without conviction."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "straitstimes.com: Ukraine allies see war going into 2027 after Russia’s Putin met US env",
      "url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/ukraine-allies-see-war-going-into-2027-after-russias-putin-met-us-envoys",
      "published_at": "2026-09-09T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-09T12:40:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-peace-deal-before-2027-polymarket-11-2026-09-09/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-peace-deal-before-2027-polymarket-11-2026-09-09.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}