{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026083007",
  "record_slug": "ukraine-russia-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-15-2026-08-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Ukraine-Russia ceasefire in 2026 puts odds at 15 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 15%",
  "headline": "Ukraine-Russia ceasefire in 2026: Polymarket 15%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2089XJ01Y3",
  "target_event_slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by",
  "event_question": "Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x84c625fdccf5c5246a15e476361e4563033906ee225800e1136c0d737596a72f",
    "question_raw": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.15,
    "volume_24h_usd": 696.3,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire in 2026 prices at 15%, keeping the outcome a long shot.",
    "Overnight Russian strikes involving 130 drones and ballistic missiles are consistent with the market's low ceasefire probability; intensive bombardment runs directly counter to de-escalation.",
    "The companion Polymarket contract on a full peace deal before 2027 (CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424) prices at only 11%, with territory cession by Ukraine (CM-EVT-XP7FFT2MC9) at 7%, showing a consistent low-probability cluster across peace outcomes.",
    "Resolution on the ceasefire contract uses Polymarket's UMA oracle; a formal, verified cessation of hostilities is required, not an informal pause or local truce."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "newsukraine.rbc.ua",
          "source_url": "https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-strikes-ukraine-with-2-ballistic-missiles-1788070865.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-30T13:30:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Russia struck Ukraine overnight with ballistic missiles and 130 drones, continuing intensive bombardment amid ongoing war.",
      "publisher": "newsukraine.rbc.ua",
      "published_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-strikes-ukraine-with-2-ballistic-missiles-1788070865.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket prices a tight cluster of low probabilities across ceasefire, peace deal, and territory cession contracts, broadly consistent with the ongoing Russian offensive posture."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "newsukraine.rbc.ua: Russia strikes Ukraine with 2 ballistic missiles and 130 drones overni",
      "url": "https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-strikes-ukraine-with-2-ballistic-missiles-1788070865.html",
      "published_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-30T13:30:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-15-2026-08-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-in-2026-polymarket-15-2026-08-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}