{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061605",
  "record_slug": "ukraine-russia-deal-by-june-30-polymarket-2-2026-06-16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-16T09:02:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30 priced near zero",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 2%",
  "headline": "Ukraine-Russia deal by June 30: Polymarket 2%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-91B1JBJW33",
  "target_event_slug": "ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia by June 30?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xa57a027158ce73973cdd13eed901c6e767a1b9e2f88c665dab8757a65b60d203",
    "question_raw": "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?",
    "current_price": 0.024,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1056.587497,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 2% probability Ukraine signs a peace deal with Russia by June 30.",
    "Trump's optimistic G7 rhetoric is sharply at odds with the near-zero pricing: markets see no formal deal as imminent despite diplomatic signals.",
    "The broader year-end contract (CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424) sits at 27%, meaning markets assign some probability of a deal in 2026 but not in the next two weeks.",
    "A Putin-Zelenskyy direct meeting by June 30 (CM-EVT-2DR1P4YZ13) prices just 1%, confirming markets see the diplomatic process as still in early stages."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "channelnewsasia.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/g7-summit-zelenskyy-trump-ukraine-war-russia-6186861",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-16T12:50:14+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump said Russia should make a peace deal after a G7 meeting with Zelenskyy, calling both sides open to talks.",
      "publisher": "channelnewsasia.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-16T09:02:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/g7-summit-zelenskyy-trump-ukraine-war-russia-6186861"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's June 30 and full-year Ukraine deal contracts together show markets treat Trump's G7 optimism as aspirational, not actionable in the near term."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "channelnewsasia.com: Russia should make peace deal, Trump says after 'very good' Zelenskyy",
      "url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/g7-summit-zelenskyy-trump-ukraine-war-russia-6186861",
      "published_at": "2026-06-16T09:02:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-16T12:50:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-russia-deal-by-june-30-polymarket-2-2026-06-16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-russia-deal-by-june-30-polymarket-2-2026-06-16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}