{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026083006",
  "record_slug": "ukraine-russia-peace-deal-before-2027-polymarket-10-2026-08-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Ukraine peace deal with Russia before 2027 remains a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 10%",
  "headline": "Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027: Polymarket 10%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424",
  "target_event_slug": "ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x4167e22670f31e5f93d132f78108f3fae809bd15cadf78983eff096845ed1415",
    "question_raw": "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.1,
    "volume_24h_usd": 11239.91838,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 10% odds on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, a firmly long-shot read.",
    "Russia's escalating strikes on civilian infrastructure and Ukrainian energy sites are consistent with the market's near-dismissal of a near-term settlement.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-T1H8NR4G99) puts just 8% on the U.S. recognizing Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027, suggesting neither diplomatic pathway is seen as likely.",
    "The Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle on a formal signed peace deal; ceasefires or framework agreements short of a signed treaty would not trigger resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "euronews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/08/30/russia-threatens-mass-strikes-on-ukraine-energy-sites-as-kyiv-depot-death-toll-hits-38",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-31T15:47:21+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Russia threatened mass strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure as the death toll from a strike on a Kyiv arms depot climbed to 38, marking the deadliest Russian attack on Ukraine in 2026.",
      "publisher": "euronews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/08/30/russia-threatens-mass-strikes-on-ukraine-energy-sites-as-kyiv-depot-death-toll-hits-38"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 10% peace-deal probability and 8% U.S.-recognition probability form a mutually reinforcing pair confirming markets see no near-term diplomatic exit from the conflict."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "euronews.com: Russia threatens mass strikes on Ukraine energy sites as Kyiv depot de",
      "url": "https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/08/30/russia-threatens-mass-strikes-on-ukraine-energy-sites-as-kyiv-depot-death-toll-hits-38",
      "published_at": "2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-31T15:47:21+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-russia-peace-deal-before-2027-polymarket-10-2026-08-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-russia-peace-deal-before-2027-polymarket-10-2026-08-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}