{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090405",
  "record_slug": "ukraine-russia-peace-deal-before-2027-polymarket-13-2026-09-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-04T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 13%",
  "headline": "Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027: Polymarket 13%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424",
  "target_event_slug": "ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x4167e22670f31e5f93d132f78108f3fae809bd15cadf78983eff096845ed1415",
    "question_raw": "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.13,
    "volume_24h_usd": 486.089679,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 13% on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, making it a long shot despite diplomatic signals.",
    "Putin's public statement about deal prospects and Ukraine's 'new dynamic' framing are not reflected in a meaningful odds shift; the market remains skeptical.",
    "A separate Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-66S3LD3901) prices only 6% on a peace agreement by 2026, showing the market sees any deal as very late-cycle at best.",
    "Polymarket contracts resolve via UMA oracle; a signed peace agreement would need to be publicly verifiable to trigger resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "tvnworld.com",
          "source_url": "https://tvnworld.com/ukraine-sees-new-dynamic-in-peace-efforts-as-vladimir-putin-says-chance-of-deal-remains/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-04T12:28:22+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Ukrainian officials described a 'new dynamic' in peace efforts after Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled a chance of a deal remains, though no formal talks have been announced.",
      "publisher": "tvnworld.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://tvnworld.com/ukraine-sees-new-dynamic-in-peace-efforts-as-vladimir-putin-says-chance-of-deal-remains/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket hosts both the 2026 and pre-2027 peace deal contracts; the 7-percentage-point gap reflects marginal additional time value but overwhelmingly shared skepticism."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "tvnworld.com: Ukraine Sees ‘New Dynamic’ in Peace Efforts as Vladimir Putin Says Cha",
      "url": "https://tvnworld.com/ukraine-sees-new-dynamic-in-peace-efforts-as-vladimir-putin-says-chance-of-deal-remains/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-04T12:28:22+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-russia-peace-deal-before-2027-polymarket-13-2026-09-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ukraine-russia-peace-deal-before-2027-polymarket-13-2026-09-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}